Prediction Tools to Manage and Treat COVID-19

Updated with new information November 2020

Since the onset of COVID-19, scientists have raced to develop predictive technology to better understand the virus. These models continue to evolve and inform physicians, health systems and health officials as they care for patients, implement social practices to mitigate the spread of the virus, determine resource allocation, identify those at high risk for infection and more. To support policyholders as they navigate the pandemic, MLMIC has assembled a summary of these resources:

In June 2020, Cleveland Clinic researchers released a risk prediction model to help physicians forecast a “patient’s likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 as well as their outcomes from the disease.” The Predict COVID-19 Test Result calculator determines how factors including age, race, gender, socioeconomic status, vaccination history and medications influence an individual’s COVID-19 risk, as well as their potential disease severity and chance of hospitalization.

Johns Hopkins Medicine scientists followed suit designing a prediction model, named the COVID Inpatient Risk Calculator, capable of helping healthcare systems effectively “care for COVID-19 patients and make important decisions about planning and resource allocations.” As outlined in a Hopkins Medicine news release, the model, published in September 2020, was created using “demographic and clinical data gathered from seven weeks of COVID-19 patient care early in the coronavirus pandemic.”

Most recently, Massachusetts General Hospital researchers released a tool able to quickly and automatically determine “which patients are most likely to develop complications and need to be hospitalized” due to COVID-19. The technology uses artificial intelligence to generate a score that predicts “the prognosis of individual patients with COVID-19 seen at urgent care clinics or emergency departments.” As outlined in a Massachusetts General Hospital news release, the COVID-19 Acuity Score considers “demographics like age and gender, COVID-19 testing status, vital signs, medical history and chest X-ray results (when available) — the top five were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status and respiratory rate.”

MLMIC will continue to share these important resources as they become available and encourages our insureds to monitor our resources page and blog for evolving guidance on the management and treatment of COVID-19.